Look out RIAs, HTML5 is coming

Google showing off Wave, has [re]ignited some discussion around HTML5. I read an article on InfoQ, Is Google Wave Going to Have an Impact on RIA/Silverlight? Which struck me as a bit of an odd question. Tim Heuer (in the Silverlight camp) is correct in asking "is HTML5 really what people are talking about here?" and towards the end of the article, the correct question is polled:

"What negative impact will HTML 5/Wave going to have on RIA/Silverlight?" [sic]

At the time the results of the poll were:

Major: 66
Significant: 115
Small: 112
None: 43
Total votes: 336

I was a bit surprised by the poll results. I voted "Major", and I find it hard to understand how someone could vote "None". None?! Really? I do realise that this is partly due to the fact that most people, including me, think they are above average (I just discovered that it is also called the Lake Wobegon effect. Cute). There is also some confusion about including Wave in the question, which has nothing to do with the issue. I'll try and convince you of the potential impact...

Why RIAs exist

The existence of Rich Internet Applications can be explained by the word "Rich" in the name. At some point in the past few years, people started to realise that HTML didn't keep up with the explosion in bandwidth and processing power available to users, and that the web experience could be "richer". This was especially obvious in areas such as not having the ability to to arbitrary on-screen animantions and rendering on a "canvas", the ability to store data locally on user's hard drives and drag-and-drop, amongst others. The lack of these features in HTML created a gap in the market, but only whilst browser technology continues to lag. This gap has been exploited by Flex, Silverlight and JavaFX.

This situation is changing.

Enter HTML5

Some of the features in HTML5 will add some really exciting possibilities to applications running on the browser platform:

Video

Although I wouldn't categorise video as a major driver for RIA technologies, it is important to mention in relation to Adobe flash, which is the dominant technology for delivering internet video. YouTube is already delivering non-flash internet video in mobile devices. The introduction of the tag will reduce the pressure of deploying flash on every platform, which could have an effect on the usage of Flex. Consider that Flash is not available on the iPhone: if you have a choice of developing your application on just one technology (HTML5) for both desktop and mobile, or choosing 2, which would cost less?

Canvas drawing (immediate mode drawing)

Canvas drawing will enable application developers to fill a gaping hole in native browser capabilities - gaming. The gaming industry is bigger than the movie industry, and the availability of a virtually universally available standard platform will not got unnoticed by game developers. Of course this capability doesn't only apply to gaming.

Local storage

As long as there's no capability for storing data offline, web applications continue to be considered the poor cousin of desktop applications. Google documents are not availble offline without Google Gears. Having local storage available in a standardised way is a big attraction for application developers. Gears might work for Gooogle, but not everyone is so keen on having a dependency on a non-standard technology.

Some other disavantages to RIAs which could favour HTML5 applications

- RIAs are usually everything or nothing. They don't play well with embedding RIA functionality into existing web pages. HTML5 allows you to grow your application, creating a richer and richer experience as you go along.
- Some RIAs have proprietary technologies.

- RIAs require an extra deployment step on top of deploying the browser. Browsers implementing HTML5 will provide a more standardised way of deploying applications to users, also in the corporate environment where locked-down systems are common. Choosing a technology that doesn't require another installation step is a big attraction for corporate IT departments.

In the long term

There another significant point to make.

I believe it is part of Google's long term strategy to make the browser the de-facto application platform. To displace Windows as the dominant aplication platform. You can see it already with Chrome, how the tabs on the browser have become the new taskbar, and the integration of browser tabs as "applications" into the host OS. For example, features like local file storage and the canvas provide a path for Google Docs to become more like MS Office. You can be sure that some of the drive behind the HTML5 standard is coming from the Google docs team.

I'm not the only one thinking along these lines: http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10002039/googles-long-shot-at-kicking-microsoft-off-the-desktop/

In closing

I'm not trying to say that HTML5 will eliminate RIA technologies, but I do believe that thinking that its impact on RIA will be "small" or "none" is absolutely ridiculous.

There are some big players pushing the browser to become the dominant application platform. HTML5 is a big step in that direction.

If you disagree, I look forward to your comments!