I'm going to make a wild prediction:
The Apple Mac will increase it's market share by more than 50% over the next two years from 4.8% to at least 7.5 %.
I'm basing my speculation on some figures:
- Mac market share went up 16% year-on-year (Feb 2008. From 4.4 to 4.8% )
- Macs represented 14 percent of sales last month (Feb 2008)
- Solid iPhone market share figures in the US (28% in the US for Q4 2007)
First, the Halo effect. Apple now has a solid (well integrated) product offering with the Mac line, iPods, iPhones and iTunes (music and movies). Consumers who are exposed to any of these products have (mostly) good experiences, which means they get warm and fuzzy inside and buy more Apple products. (but NOT shares. Hmmmm). Why are their product doing so well despite their higher prices? My first axiom:
People are always willing to pay more for a better quality product
Secondly, some perception. I work in technology (creating software), and I would hope that we have a better idea of where the market is heading that the average consumer. I would also like to think that we have some influence over how people will be using their computers in the future, especially though the products and services that we create. I'm seeing more and more Macs being used by the creators of software, especially by those who are more discerning, and my perception is that there is an increasingly positive view of the Mac and Mac OS X in the amongst software creators. Couple that with the buzz that has been created by the iPhone and the iPhone SDK (which delivers a platform for writing software for the iPhone by 3rd party developers), and the future looks rosy.
Lastly, Windows Vista. No matter what Microsoft says, it hasn't been a big success. All the problems associated with it's (much delayed) launch, the quality of the product, the whole "Vista Capable" fiasco etc. has created a unique opportunity for Mac OS X.
Let's wait and see...